Stadion Strelnice · Referee A. Mach · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.65 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives FK Jablonec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Jablonec win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Jablonec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Baník Ostrava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Jablonec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 27% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for FK Jablonec and 0.65 for Baník Ostrava, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 2–012.7%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
FK Jablonec
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Praha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zlin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 3-0 (W)
Baník Ostrava
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kladno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 26 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Teplice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Artis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Jablonec win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.