Stadion Strelnice · Referee F. Lata · Analysis updated 10:08 UTC
FK Jablonec vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 3.00 for NK Varazdin, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives NK Varazdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
NK Varazdin win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.1%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–36.1%
- 1–44.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates NK Varazdin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 25% / 17% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for FK Jablonec and 3.00 for NK Varazdin, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 82%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 58% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FK Jablonec
NK Varazdin
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.