Stadion Strelnice · Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.60 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Slavia Praha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Slavia Praha win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Jablonec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Slavia Praha away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Praha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 19% / 25% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.60 for Slavia Praha, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
FK Jablonec
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Praha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zlin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 3-0 (W)
Slavia Praha
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Sigma Olomouc | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Zbrojovka Brno | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Teplice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Plzen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Artis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slavia Praha win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.