Stadion Strelnice · Referee P. Orel · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
FK Jablonec vs Zlin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.28 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives FK Jablonec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Jablonec win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Jablonec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zlin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Jablonec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.28 for Zlin, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
FK Jablonec
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukla Praha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zlin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 3-0 (W)
Zlin
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Prostějov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Havířov · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teplice · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 26 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Teplice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Artis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Jablonec win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.