· Referee B. Kiss · Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
FK Košice vs Ružomberok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for FK Košice and 0.92 for Ružomberok, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FK Košice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Košice win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Košice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ružomberok away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 49.0% vs market 38.5%, edge +10.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.5% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +10.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.6% | 40.1% | 2.49 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 59.7% | 59.9% | 1.67 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 5.56 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.8% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.4% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.6% | 82.0% | 1.22 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.5% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -10.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FK Košice
- 2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok · 2-0 (W)
Ružomberok
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Opava · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 2-0 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 3-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2026-03-14T14:30:00.000Z · FK Košice 1-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2025-12-10T14:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 4-2 Ružomberok (Cup)
- 2025-11-29T14:30:00.000Z · FK Košice 1-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 3-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2025-02-22T14:30:00.000Z · FK Košice 1-2 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2024-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 2-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2023-12-16T14:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 2-2 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2023-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · FK Košice 0-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Žilina | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | AS Trencin | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 12 | Komárno | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Košice win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.