Arena e Demave · Referee O. Yzeiraj · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
FK Kukesi vs Oriku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for FK Kukesi and 0.67 for Oriku, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives FK Kukesi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Kukesi win
74.1% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Kukesi home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oriku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Kukesi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 17% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for FK Kukesi and 0.67 for Oriku, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 1–011.8%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.9%
Recent form
FK Kukesi
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korabi Peshkopi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogradeci · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-4 (L)
Oriku
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Butrinti Sarandë · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Memaliaj · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Kukesi win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.