Daugavas stadions · Referee K. Ratnieks · Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
FK Liepaja vs Riga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for FK Liepaja and 2.10 for Riga, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Riga win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Liepaja home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Riga away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for FK Liepaja and 2.10 for Riga, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–26.7%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
FK Liepaja
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Daugavpils · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Riga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-1 (L)
Riga
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Riga | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 58 | 76 |
| 3 | Auda | 32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 64 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 42 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 32 | 11 | 5 | 16 | -14 | 38 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -19 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -32 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -19 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 32 | 4 | 6 | 22 | -47 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Riga win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.