FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA Sofia III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for FK Minyor Pernik and 0.53 for CSKA Sofia III, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives FK Minyor Pernik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FK Minyor Pernik win

61.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Minyor Pernik home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia III away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Minyor Pernik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 26% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for FK Minyor Pernik and 0.53 for CSKA Sofia III, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FK Minyor Pernik win61%

Draw26%

CSKA Sofia III win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.6%
2–014.7%
0–013.1%
1–110.5%
2–17.9%

Recent form

FK Minyor Pernik

2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Ihtiman · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 5-2 (W)

CSKA Sofia III

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slivnishki geroy · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia II · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	9	2	1	21	29
2	Oborishte	11	6	4	1	11	22
3	Bansko	10	7	1	2	8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	6	1	3	8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	11	6	1	4	2	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	12	6	1	5	-1	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	6	0	5	6	18
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	5	2	5	-1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	5	0	6	2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	3	6	2	2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	5	0	5	1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	4	1	7	-15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	3	2	7	-6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	1	4	6	-8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	12	2	1	9	-18	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FK Minyor Pernik win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.