Stadion Minyor · Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
FK Minyor Pernik vs Kyustendil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for FK Minyor Pernik and 0.57 for Kyustendil, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives FK Minyor Pernik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Minyor Pernik win
78.9% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Minyor Pernik home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kyustendil away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Minyor Pernik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 15% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for FK Minyor Pernik and 0.57 for Kyustendil, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.6%
- 3–012.0%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 4–07.3%
Recent form
FK Minyor Pernik
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Ihtiman · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 5-2 (W)
Kyustendil
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Natsional Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Minyor Pernik win, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.