FK Neftekhimik vs Ural Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for FK Neftekhimik and 1.25 for Ural, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Ural the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ural win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.70 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Neftekhimik home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ural away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FK Neftekhimik win21%

Draw30%

Ural win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–117.8%
0–014.2%
1–112.4%
0–211.1%
1–010.0%

Recent form

FK Neftekhimik

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Enisey · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC UFA · 0-1 (L)

Ural

2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Luki-Energiya · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · FK Neftekhimik 0-1 Ural (First League)
2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · FK Neftekhimik 1-0 Ural (First League)
2025-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · FK Neftekhimik 1-1 Ural (First League)
2025-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · FK Neftekhimik 2-3 Ural (First League)
2024-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · FK Neftekhimik 1-1 Ural (First League)

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	12	1	1	28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	9	2	3	9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	8	3	3	15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	14	5	6	3	4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	4	4	6	-11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	14	3	5	6	-11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	3	4	7	-7	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Tekstilshchik	14	2	4	8	-12	10
18	Ska-khabarovsk	14	1	4	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ural win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.