Stadion Partizana · Analysis updated 15:51 UTC
FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for FK Partizan and 1.10 for Novi Pazar, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives FK Partizan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Partizan win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Partizan home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Partizan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for FK Partizan and 1.10 for Novi Pazar, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–16.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.57 | 58.9% | 61.4% | 1.63 | +2.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.6% | 79.1% | 1.26 | +2.5 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.6% | 19.8% | 5.05 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 59.2% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.20 | 42.4% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.5% | 40.8% | 2.45 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 22.1% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 81.9% | 80.3% | 1.25 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 41.1% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FK Partizan
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Novi Pazar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 17 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Partizan win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.