Stadion Partizana · Referee Andrija Stojanovic, Serbia · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
FK Partizan vs OFK Beograd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for FK Partizan and 1.50 for OFK Beograd, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives OFK Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Partizan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OFK Beograd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
FK Partizan
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)
OFK Beograd
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki NIS · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IMT Novi Beograd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · FK Partizan 3-1 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · FK Partizan 1-1 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2026-02-28T17:30:00.000Z · FK Partizan 1-2 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · FK Partizan 2-0 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · FK Partizan 2-2 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · FK Partizan 4-1 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2024-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · FK Partizan 2-3 OFK Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2023-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · FK Partizan 2-1 OFK Beograd (Friendlies Clubs)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.