· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
FK Partizan vs Rodina Moskva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for FK Partizan and 1.45 for Rodina Moskva, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives FK Partizan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Partizan win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Partizan home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rodina Moskva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Partizan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for FK Partizan and 1.45 for Rodina Moskva, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
FK Partizan
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Novi Pazar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
Rodina Moskva
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Partizan win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.