· Analysis updated 08:44 UTC
FK Prespa Resen vs Belasica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for FK Prespa Resen and 1.64 for Belasica, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Belasica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belasica win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Prespa Resen home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belasica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belasica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for FK Prespa Resen and 1.64 for Belasica, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
FK Prespa Resen
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Vinica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Golemo Konjari · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 0-2 (L)
Belasica
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belasica win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.