· Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
FK Rabotnicki vs Kozuv Gevgelija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for FK Rabotnicki and 0.62 for Kozuv Gevgelija, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives FK Rabotnicki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Rabotnicki win
78.1% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Rabotnicki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 15% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for FK Rabotnicki and 0.62 for Kozuv Gevgelija, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 42%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 78% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.9%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 4–07.1%
Recent form
FK Rabotnicki
Kozuv Gevgelija
- 2026-08-30T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Ohrid · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkupi 1927 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Rabotnicki · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademija Pandev · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Rabotnicki win, at 78.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.