· Analysis updated 00:56 UTC
FK Romanija Pale vs Leotar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for FK Romanija Pale and 2.62 for Leotar, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Leotar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Leotar win
74.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 2.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Romanija Pale home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leotar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leotar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 10% / 15% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for FK Romanija Pale and 2.62 for Leotar, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–38.0%
Recent form
FK Romanija Pale
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Potkozarje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Famos Vojkovići · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-3 (L)
Leotar
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Laktaši · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Famos Vojkovići · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Famos Vojkovići | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Rudar Prijedor | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leotar win, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.