· Analysis updated 06:54 UTC
FK Romanija Pale vs Slavija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for FK Romanija Pale and 1.34 for Slavija, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives FK Romanija Pale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Romanija Pale home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Slavija away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 42.5% vs market 34.8%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 34.8% | 42.5% | 2.35 | +7.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 33.4% | 33.7% | 2.97 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 75.1% | 1.33 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.4% | 58.6% | 1.71 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 41.6% | 41.4% | 2.42 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.8% | 66.3% | 1.51 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.2% | 57.5% | 1.74 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FK Romanija Pale
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Potkozarje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Famos Vojkovići · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-3 (L)
Slavija
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leotar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Majevica Lopare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Potkozarje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Famos Vojkovići · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 1-2 Slavija (1st League - RS)
- 2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 2-1 Slavija (1st League - RS)
- 2025-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 1-1 Slavija (1st League - RS)
- 2025-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 0-1 Slavija (1st League - RS)
- 2024-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 2-0 Slavija (1st League - RS)
- 2024-03-23T14:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 0-0 Slavija (1st League - RS)
- 2023-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 0-2 Slavija (1st League - RS)
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Majevica Lopare | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kozara Gradiška | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Potkozarje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Rudar Prijedor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Velež Nevesinje | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 11 |
| 10 | Famos Vojkovići | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foča | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Omarska | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.