· Analysis updated 08:59 UTC
FK Romanija Pale vs Zvijezda 09 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for FK Romanija Pale and 1.75 for Zvijezda 09, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives FK Romanija Pale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Romanija Pale win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Romanija Pale home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Romanija Pale to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for FK Romanija Pale and 1.75 for Zvijezda 09, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
FK Romanija Pale
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Potkozarje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Famos Vojkovići · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-3 (L)
Zvijezda 09
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 2-0 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 2-4 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2025-11-27T12:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 3-0 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 0-1 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 0-0 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · FK Romanija Pale 1-0 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Majevica Lopare | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kozara Gradiška | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Potkozarje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Rudar Prijedor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Velež Nevesinje | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 11 |
| 10 | Famos Vojkovići | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foča | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Omarska | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Romanija Pale win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.