· Referee A. Tomic · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
FK Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for FK Sarajevo and 1.28 for Borac Banja Luka, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Borac Banja Luka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Sarajevo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borac Banja Luka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borac Banja Luka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 28% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for FK Sarajevo and 1.28 for Borac Banja Luka, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
FK Sarajevo
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornji Rahić · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Doboj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-0 (W)
Borac Banja Luka
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.