Asim Ferhatović Hase · Referee Antoni Bandić, Bosnia & Herzegovina · Analysis updated 07:53 UTC
FK Sarajevo vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for FK Sarajevo and 0.78 for Radnik Bijeljina, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives FK Sarajevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Sarajevo win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Sarajevo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radnik Bijeljina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
FK Sarajevo
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornji Rahić · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Doboj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-0 (W)
Radnik Bijeljina
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zrinjski · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 1-1 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 0-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 2-1 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-02-06T19:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 2-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 2-2 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-08-03T16:45:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 4-4 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 1-1 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-12-03T15:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 3-2 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 2-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
- 2022-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · FK Sarajevo 1-0 Radnik Bijeljina (Premijer Liga)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | BSK Banja Luka | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Sarajevo win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.