Asim Ferhatović Hase · Referee Amin Efendić, Bosnia & Herzegovina · Analysis updated 08:54 UTC
FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for FK Sarajevo and 0.68 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives FK Sarajevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Sarajevo win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Sarajevo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Sarajevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for FK Sarajevo and 0.68 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–010.5%
Recent form
FK Sarajevo
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornji Rahić · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Doboj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-0 (W)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Sarajevo win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.