Stadion Lokomotiv · Analysis updated 18:00 UTC
FK Sokol Saratov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for FK Sokol Saratov and 1.63 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Alaniya Vladikavkaz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alaniya Vladikavkaz win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Sokol Saratov home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaniya Vladikavkaz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 18% / 25% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for FK Sokol Saratov and 1.63 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
FK Sokol Saratov
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alaniya Vladikavkaz win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.