Stadion Lokomotiv · Analysis updated 02:46 UTC
FK Sokol Saratov vs Volgar Astrakhan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for FK Sokol Saratov and 1.09 for Volgar Astrakhan, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Volgar Astrakhan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Sokol Saratov home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Volgar Astrakhan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 32% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for FK Sokol Saratov and 1.09 for Volgar Astrakhan, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.4%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
FK Sokol Saratov
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
Volgar Astrakhan
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.