· Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
FK Spartak Tambov vs Strogino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for FK Spartak Tambov and 1.05 for Strogino, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives FK Spartak Tambov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Spartak Tambov home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strogino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
FK Spartak Tambov
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit Penza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SKA Rostov · 1-1 (D)
Strogino
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 0-1 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 4-0 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 6-0 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 1-1 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 1-1 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-05-19T14:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 3-1 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 3-1 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 2-3 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-07-30T10:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Tambov 0-0 Strogino (Second League - Group 3)
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.