Gradski stadion · Analysis updated 19:17 UTC
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Napredak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV and 1.30 for Napredak, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napredak away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grafičar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Cacak · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubočica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 0-2 (L)
Napredak
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Loznica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Vozdovac · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1-0 Napredak (Prva Liga)
- 2026-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0-3 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2026-03-01T14:30:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1-1 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2-1 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2-1 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2024-12-22T16:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0-2 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2024-08-17T17:30:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0-2 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2024-02-12T15:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1-1 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2023-08-27T17:30:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1-3 Napredak (Super Liga)
- 2023-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0-1 Napredak (Super Liga)
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.