FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.35 for Aktobe, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives FK Tobol Kostanay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Tobol Kostanay home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aktobe away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Tobol Kostanay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.35 for Aktobe, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FK Tobol Kostanay win45%

Draw24%

Aktobe win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.1%
1–08.2%
1–27.5%
2–06.8%

Recent form

FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaisar · 3-2 (W)

Aktobe

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	37	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	28	13	6	9	7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	12	8	8	2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Zhenys	29	8	9	12	-9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Atyrau	28	5	12	11	-10	27
13	Altay	28	6	8	14	-11	26
14	Irtysh	28	6	8	14	-16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.