Centralnyj Stadion · Referee G. Chekhovsky · Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.03 for Atyrau, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives FK Tobol Kostanay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Tobol Kostanay win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Tobol Kostanay home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atyrau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
FK Tobol Kostanay
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaisar · 3-2 (W)
Atyrau
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Atyrau (Premier League)
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
- 2025-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 0-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
- 2025-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 5-0 Atyrau (Premier League)
- 2024-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
- 2024-06-23T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 0-0 Atyrau (Premier League)
- 2024-06-19T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 0-4 Atyrau (Cup)
- 2024-05-29T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Atyrau (Cup)
- 2023-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Atyrau (Cup)
- 2023-07-02T14:00:00.000Z · FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Atyrau (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 68 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 44 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenys | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 33 |
| 11 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 30 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 13 | Altay | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Irtysh | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Kaisar | 28 | 4 | 12 | 12 | -15 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Tobol Kostanay win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.