Centralnyj Stadion · Referee D. Shurman · Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.00 for Panevėžys, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives FK Tobol Kostanay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Tobol Kostanay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.00 for Panevėžys, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 66% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FK Tobol Kostanay
Panevėžys
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.