FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.95 for Ulytau, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives FK Tobol Kostanay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FK Tobol Kostanay win

49.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Tobol Kostanay home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ulytau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Tobol Kostanay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.95 for Ulytau, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FK Tobol Kostanay win49%

Draw26%

Ulytau win25%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.1%
1–112.4%
2–09.6%
2–19.1%
0–08.9%

Recent form

FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)

Ulytau

2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	37	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	17	53
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	29	13	7	9	7	46
6	Yelimay Semey	29	12	9	8	2	45
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Zhenys	29	8	9	12	-9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Irtysh	29	7	8	14	-15	29
13	Altay	29	6	9	14	-11	27
14	Atyrau	29	5	12	12	-11	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	29	4	13	12	-15	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FK Tobol Kostanay win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.