FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.23 for Yelimay Semey, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives FK Tobol Kostanay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FK Tobol Kostanay win

54.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Tobol Kostanay home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yelimay Semey away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Tobol Kostanay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.23 for Yelimay Semey, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FK Tobol Kostanay win54%

Draw22%

Yelimay Semey win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.7%
1–08.1%
2–07.9%
3–16.3%

Recent form

FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)

Yelimay Semey

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	37	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	17	53
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	29	13	7	9	7	46
6	Yelimay Semey	29	12	9	8	2	45
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Zhenys	29	8	9	12	-9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Irtysh	29	7	8	14	-15	29
13	Altay	29	6	9	14	-11	27
14	Atyrau	29	5	12	12	-11	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	29	4	13	12	-15	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FK Tobol Kostanay win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.