FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.68 for Dinamo Tbilisi, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dinamo Tbilisi win

45.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.68 for Dinamo Tbilisi, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win31%

Draw24%

Dinamo Tbilisi win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–29.2%
0–18.1%
2–17.4%
0–26.8%

Recent form

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2026-10-10T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Suduva Marijampole · 0-0 (D)

Dinamo Tbilisi

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gagra · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7-2 Dinamo Tbilisi (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-3 Dinamo Tbilisi (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2023-02-01T14:30:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi (Friendlies Clubs)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tbilisi win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.