FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.68 for Dinamo Tbilisi, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Dinamo Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Dinamo Tbilisi win

45.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win31%

Draw24%

Dinamo Tbilisi win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–29.2%
0–18.1%
2–17.4%
0–26.8%

Why the model likes this

FK Zalgiris Vilnius home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.68 for Dinamo Tbilisi, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banga · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 2-5 (L)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 7-2 (W)
2026-07-27T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 3-2 (W)

Dinamo Tbilisi

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rustavi · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-7 (L)
2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7-2 Dinamo Tbilisi (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-3 Dinamo Tbilisi (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2023-02-01T14:30:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi (Friendlies Clubs)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.