Floyabanen · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Fløya vs Junkeren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Fløya and 1.49 for Junkeren, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Fløya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fløya win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fløya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Junkeren away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fløya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Fløya and 1.49 for Junkeren, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Fløya
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)
Junkeren
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ull/Kisa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Skeid · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fløya win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.