· Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Fløya vs Lillestrøm II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Fløya and 1.81 for Lillestrøm II, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives Fløya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fløya win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fløya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lillestrøm II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fløya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 16% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Fløya and 1.81 for Lillestrøm II, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.6%
- 2–16.4%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–25.8%
- 4–15.2%
Recent form
Fløya
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)
Lillestrøm II
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 3-8 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Skedsmo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bossekop · 11-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 8 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -25 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 30 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | -28 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -37 | 22 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fløya win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.