· Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Flacăra Moreni vs Păuleşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.60 expected goals for Flacăra Moreni and 0.50 for Păuleşti, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Flacăra Moreni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flacăra Moreni win
91.3% probability
Expected goals
3.60 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Păuleşti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flacăra Moreni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 6% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.60 goals for Flacăra Moreni and 0.50 for Păuleşti, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 38%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–012.9%
- 4–011.6%
- 2–010.7%
- 5–08.3%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Flacăra Moreni
Păuleşti
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Corbeanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunari · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Urban Titu · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 28 |
| 2 | Tunari | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Berca | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Voința Crevedia | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | Pucioasa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Urban Titu | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Râmnicu Sărat | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Plopeni | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flacăra Moreni win, at 91.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.