· Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Flamengo U20 vs Athletico PR U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Flamengo U20 and 2.00 for Athletico PR U20, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Athletico PR U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletico PR U20 win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flamengo U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletico PR U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletico PR U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 31% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Flamengo U20 and 2.00 for Athletico PR U20, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Flamengo U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
Athletico PR U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Luverdense U20 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avaí U20 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasileiro U20 A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras U20 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 31 | 44 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 36 |
| 3 | Botafogo U20 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | RB Bragantino U20 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 34 |
| 5 | Athletico PR U20 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 6 | Santos U20 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro U20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Corinthians U20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 29 |
| 9 | Bahia U20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 10 | Flamengo U20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 28 |
| 11 | São Paulo U20 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| 12 | América Mineiro U20 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -12 | 25 |
| 13 | Cuiabá U20 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 21 |
| 14 | Vitória U20 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 20 |
| 15 | Fluminense U20 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 19 |
| 16 | Grêmio U20 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Juventude U20 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | Criciuma U20 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 17 |
| 19 | Avaí U20 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -19 | 16 |
| 20 | Fortaleza U20 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletico PR U20 win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.