Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.75 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Flamengo to Win

51.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Flamengo win51%

Draw28%

Cruzeiro win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.5%
1–112.4%
0–012.2%
2–011.2%
0–19.2%

Why the model likes this

Flamengo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Flamengo and 0.75 for Cruzeiro, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Recent form

Flamengo

2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)

Cruzeiro

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.