· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Flaminia vs Tau Altopascio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Flaminia and 1.20 for Tau Altopascio, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Flaminia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Flaminia win
63.4% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flaminia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tau Altopascio away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flaminia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Flaminia and 1.20 for Tau Altopascio, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Flaminia
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Terranuova Traiana · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grassina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 2-0 (W)
Tau Altopascio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grassina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rondinella · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ternana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Robur Siena · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Lucchese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Seravezza | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Flaminia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Ternana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Terranuova Traiana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Mezzolara | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rondinella | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Montevarchi Calcio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Grassina | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Progresso | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flaminia win, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.