Stadiumi Flamurtari · Analysis updated 19:30 UTC
Flamurtari vs FK Kukesi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Flamurtari and 1.02 for FK Kukesi, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Flamurtari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Flamurtari win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flamurtari home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamurtari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Flamurtari and 1.02 for FK Kukesi, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Flamurtari
- 2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gramshi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogradeci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 3-3 (D)
FK Kukesi
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korabi Peshkopi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogradeci · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flamurtari win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.