The Mustard Seed Stadium · Analysis updated 08:34 UTC
Fleet Town vs Alton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Fleet Town and 1.53 for Alton Town, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Fleet Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fleet Town win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fleet Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alton Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fleet Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Fleet Town and 1.53 for Alton Town, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Fleet Town
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldershot Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Stoneham · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Stoneham · 2-4 (L)
- 2024-08-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wincanton Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wincanton Town · 2-2 (D)
Alton Town
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Supermarine · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Supermarine · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wincanton Town · 5-0 (W)
- 2024-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleet Town · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fleet Town win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.