Poolfoot Farm · Analysis updated 10:12 UTC
Fleetwood Town U21 vs AFC Bournemouth U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Fleetwood Town U21 and 1.30 for AFC Bournemouth U21, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Fleetwood Town U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fleetwood Town U21 win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fleetwood Town U21 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Bournemouth U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fleetwood Town U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Fleetwood Town U21 and 1.30 for AFC Bournemouth U21, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Fleetwood Town U21
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough United U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 2-1 (W)
AFC Bournemouth U21
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fleetwood Town U21 win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.