Highbury Stadium · Referee T. Parsons · Analysis updated 13:55 UTC
Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.05 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Fleetwood Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fleetwood Town win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fleetwood Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shrewsbury away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.91 | 48.5% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +1.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.9% | 46.3% | 2.16 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.2% | 26.3% | 3.80 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.0% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 54.5% | 53.7% | 1.86 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 49.8% | 2.01 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fleetwood Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochdale · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnet · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-0 (W)
Shrewsbury
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 2-0 Shrewsbury (League Two)
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 4-0 Shrewsbury (League Cup)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 2-2 Shrewsbury (League Two)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 3-1 Shrewsbury (League Two)
- 2024-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 1-3 Shrewsbury (League One)
- 2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 0-1 Shrewsbury (League One)
- 2023-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 3-0 Shrewsbury (League One)
- 2022-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 0-1 Shrewsbury (League One)
- 2022-02-05T15:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 1-1 Shrewsbury (League One)
- 2021-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Fleetwood Town 0-3 Shrewsbury (League One)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fleetwood Town win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.