Flekkerøy vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for Flekkerøy and 1.53 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined total of 4.22. That distribution gives Flekkerøy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Flekkerøy win

62.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.69 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Flekkerøy home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Staal Jørpeland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flekkerøy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.69 goals for Flekkerøy and 1.53 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined 4.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Flekkerøy win62%

Draw18%

Staal Jørpeland win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.1%
3–17.3%
2–26.2%
1–16.0%
3–25.6%

Recent form

Flekkerøy

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vindbjart · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varhaug · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Madla · 0-2 (L)

Staal Jørpeland

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varhaug · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	23	14	6	3	32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	13	4	6	20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	12	3	8	8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	12	2	9	20	38
5	Varhaug	23	10	6	7	5	36
6	Viking II	23	10	5	8	23	35
7	Brodd	23	10	3	10	2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
9	Våg	23	10	2	11	1	32
10	Odd II	23	8	5	10	-10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	7	5	11	-13	26
12	Haugesund II	23	7	4	12	-21	25
13	Hinna	23	6	5	12	-25	23
14	Åkra	23	4	3	16	-41	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Flekkerøy win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.