· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Flénu vs Seraing United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Flénu and 1.60 for Seraing United, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Flénu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flénu win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flénu home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Seraing United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flénu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Flénu and 1.60 for Seraing United, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Flénu
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Onhaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RWDM · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Verviers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 4-2 (W)
Seraing United
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Knokke · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flénu win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.