Flora II vs Elva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Flora II and 1.50 for Elva, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Flora II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Flora II home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Elva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flora II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Flora II and 1.50 for Elva, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Flora II win38%

Draw24%

Elva win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.5%
1–07.5%

Recent form

Flora II

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 0-0 (D)

Elva

2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	54	71
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	FCI Levadia II	32	16	2	14	8	50
4	Elva	32	14	7	11	-1	49
5	Flora II	31	14	6	11	18	48
6	Maardu	30	12	7	11	-12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	10	7	14	-5	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	10	6	16	-14	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	-35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	6	6	21	-42	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.