A. Le Coq Arena · Referee J. Jaanovits · Analysis updated 02:48 UTC
Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Flora Tallinn and 1.44 for Kalju Nomme, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Flora Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flora Tallinn home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalju Nomme away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flora Tallinn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Flora Tallinn and 1.44 for Kalju Nomme, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Flora Tallinn
- 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
Kalju Nomme
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 66 | 84 |
| 2 | Paide | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 60 |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 34 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 58 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 54 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 33 | 16 | 2 | 15 | -5 | 50 |
| 6 | Laagri | 34 | 15 | 2 | 17 | -1 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -22 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | -18 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 33 | 11 | 1 | 21 | -22 | 34 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 33 | 5 | 5 | 23 | -49 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.