A. Le Coq Arena · Referee J. Frischer · Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Flora Tallinn and 1.45 for Tammeka, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Flora Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flora Tallinn home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tammeka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Flora Tallinn
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 0-2 (L)
Tammeka
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-0 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 3-2 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 1-3 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 1-3 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-07-20T14:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-05-30T17:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 3-1 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-04-08T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Tammeka (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Flora Tallinn 2-1 Tammeka (Meistriliiga)
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 66 | 84 |
| 2 | Paide | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 60 |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 34 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 58 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 54 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 33 | 16 | 2 | 15 | -5 | 50 |
| 6 | Laagri | 34 | 15 | 2 | 17 | -1 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -22 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | -18 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 33 | 11 | 1 | 21 | -22 | 34 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 33 | 5 | 5 | 23 | -49 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.