· Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Floresta CE U20 vs Caucaia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Floresta CE U20 and 0.75 for Caucaia U20, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Floresta CE U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Floresta CE U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caucaia U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Floresta CE U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Floresta CE U20 and 0.75 for Caucaia U20, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Floresta CE U20
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quixadá U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quixadá U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Caucaia U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Horizonte U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 1-0 (W)
Caucaia U20
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta CE U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianca U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quixadá U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juazeiro EC U20 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · Floresta CE U20 1-0 Caucaia U20 (Cearense U20)
- 2024-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Floresta CE U20 4-1 Caucaia U20 (Cearense U20)
Cearense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tirol U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Quixadá U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Ferroviario U20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Cearense U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fortaleza U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Floresta CE U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Alianca U20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Juazeiro EC U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.