Centenary Stadium · Referee M. Grotta · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Floriana vs Drita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Floriana and 0.99 for Drita, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Floriana win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Floriana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drita away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Floriana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Floriana and 0.99 for Drita, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Floriana
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsaxlokk · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-1 (D)
Drita
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Brann | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Floriana win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.