· Referee D. Portelli · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Floriana vs Marsaxlokk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Floriana and 0.85 for Marsaxlokk, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Floriana win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Floriana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marsaxlokk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Floriana
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsaxlokk · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-1 (D)
Marsaxlokk
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Floriana · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valletta FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernians · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Balzan FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2026-04-15T18:30:00.000Z · Floriana 3-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2026-02-18T17:30:00.000Z · Floriana 0-0 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2026-01-03T15:15:00.000Z · Floriana 1-0 Marsaxlokk (FA Trophy)
- 2025-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-04-12T11:45:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2025-02-09T15:15:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2024-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · Floriana 1-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
- 2024-04-20T14:15:00.000Z · Floriana 0-1 Marsaxlokk (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Floriana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Hamrun Spartans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Mosta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Floriana win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.