Centenary Stadium · Referee E. Barbara · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Floriana vs Sliema Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Floriana and 1.03 for Sliema Wanderers, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Floriana win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Floriana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sliema Wanderers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Floriana
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsaxlokk · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-1 (D)
Sliema Wanderers
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Balzan FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Mosta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · Floriana 2-0 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2026-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · Floriana 1-0 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-12-20T17:15:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-11-01T18:00:00.000Z · Floriana 2-2 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-05-09T18:30:00.000Z · Floriana 4-0 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T11:45:00.000Z · Floriana 0-2 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-02-22T12:45:00.000Z · Floriana 2-1 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2024-12-17T18:00:00.000Z · Floriana 1-0 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2024-11-01T17:00:00.000Z · Floriana 0-0 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2024-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · Floriana 1-1 Sliema Wanderers (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Floriana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Hamrun Spartans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Mosta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Floriana win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.